Health Ministry Says Covid-19 Cases Plateauing in Some States, Experts Disagree

The health ministry said some states are showing very early signs of plateauing in daily new Covid-19 cases, but experts said it was far too premature to arrive at any such conclusions.

Lav Agarwal, Joint Secretary in the Health Ministry said 13 states, including Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra and Punjab, are showing early signs of plateauing, while states like Bihar, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura and West Bengal are showing an increasing trend in daily cases.

“There are some early signs of plateauing or decrease in new COVID-19 cases in some states,” Agarwal said. Chhattisgarh, where 15,583 cases were reported on April 29, recorded 14,087 fresh cases on May 2. Similar was the case with Delhi, Daman and Diu, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Ladakh, Lakshadweep, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand.

He said there are 12 states where active cases are more than a lakh. They are Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu. There are seven states where the active cases are in the range of 50,000 to 1 lakh cases and 17 states where the active cases are more than 50,000. There are 22 states where the positivity rate is more than 15 per cent and in nine states the positivity rate is between 5 to 15 per cent and five states it is less than five per cent.

However, experts say it is too early to even call it as a trend. A report in Hindustan Times quoting a senior public health expert said, “You cannot establish a trend by looking at 48-72 hours data. This could be an aberration, and needs to sustain for a few weeks before something can be declared concretely.

Agarwal also said states and union territories like Andaman and Nicobar, Andhra Pradesh, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Goa, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Karnataka, Kerala, Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Odisha, Pudcherry, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Tamil Nadu, Tripura and West Bengal are showing an increasing trend in daily cases.

India’s active case load has also increased and it is currently around 34 lakh, with 12 states reporting at least 100,000 active cases. Seven states have active cases between 50,000 and 100,000, and 17 have less than 50,000 active cases.

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