Oxford Economics Lowers India GDP Estimate; Banks Say Careful About Lending

By Aditya Raghunath

Investing.com — Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics said that it has reduced its estimates for India’s GDP growth for 2021 from 11.8% earlier to 10.2% now. The revision is due to the increasing number of COVID-19 cases, a slow vaccine rollout, increasing medical cost, and lack of a convincing government strategy to contain the pandemic.

It said that it expects GDP to contract sequentially in the second quarter but that it could also reduce its estimates further if there are further lockdowns in the country.

“But if struggling health systems force more states to resort to stricter lockdowns like Maharashtra, we will likely lower our growth forecast further,” it said.

“While the official mortality rate has edged lower, it masks a rapidly rising death count. Deaths are now doubling every ten days and even this figure is likely buttressed by delayed or under-reporting of deaths,” it said.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, in a post-results call, ICICI Bank Ltd (NS:) told analysts that it will “calibrate [its] growth in the near term based on the operating environment and conditions resulting from the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.”

Non-food credit for the fortnight ended April 9 fell to 5.4% compared to 7% in the same period last year. CARE Ratings analysts said that this is the first time year-on-year growth rate has fallen in the first month of a new financial year in the last five years.



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